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NFL PRESEASON BETTING
As is the case with many wagering options, many people don't understand how do bet on preseason pro football. As is the case with many wagering options, many people don't understand preseason football. One of the first things they say is, 'Who really knows what's going to happen in an exhibition game?' Many of them follow up that question with the observation, 'How can you bet on an exhibition game? You're sick.' Not so. In the first place, who really knows what's going to happen in a regular-season NFL game? If that were so obvious, there would be many more rich guys walking around Las Vegas. The fact is that in any football wager--preseason, regular-season, or postseason--all you're really looking for is a formful situation that has a high probability of playing to that form. As in the regular season, you should avoid getting financially involved with games that have strong, conflicting factors or those in which element 'X' (key injuries, weather, a big class difference, etc.) make them hard to predict. But, I submit, if you can find an NFL exhibition game which has factors that tend to make it formful, it is just as valid a wagering vehicle as most others. That's why we study coaches' personalities and preseason preferences, peruse depth charts, learn about newcomers, and look for repeating tendencies. [Hey! What a surprise! That's what we do in the regular season, too!] For example, I don't think it's happenstance that Denver's Mike Shanahan is 6-1-1 vs. the spread his last 8 games following a preseason loss. Or that it's pure coincidence Bill Belichick is 12-4-1 vs. the points in preseason since he took over the Patriots. There's something 'going on' there, and it's nice for summer football fans if they know what it is. Before reviewing some interesting angles in the preseason, it's good to have a general overview of exhibition football. This includes basic knowledge of the exhibition 'formula' and 'coaches' agreement' at work in many games. Here they are. THE FORMULA These days, more than ever, the majority of NFL coaches run their exhibition seasons according to a 'formula.' Keep in mind that in the salary-crazy days of 21st century, NFL preseason games are, in essence, practice games to provide summer TV product for the networks and to bring in extra revenue for the owners. The current preseason formula (for teams playing the common four exhibitions) goes something like this. Game One--Starters go a couple of series or about one quarter; top backups into the second half; then mostly reserves, rookies and free agents the rest of the way. Game Two--Starters go most or all of the first half; backups deep into the third (or early fourth) quarter; reserves the rest of the way. Game Three--This is usually a team's main dress rehearsal for opening day. Starters play one-half to three-quarters of the game, backups most of the rest of the way; reserves see action depending mostly on the situation. Game Four--This is often a 'throwaway' game for coaches, who are usually much more concerned about their opening-day opponent than they are about this practice finale. Starters often play only a couple of series or so; maybe less; some maybe not at all. Any key players with nagging injuries will be held out. Backups and reserves play the majority of the game, with promising youngsters getting one final chance to win a spot on the roster. COACHES' AGREEMENT In addition to the 'formula,' most NFL coaches now adhere to an unwritten preseason 'coaches' agreement' that goes something like this. 'For the first two games, I will only use my starters against your starters, my backups against your backups, and my reserves against your reserves. I will not re-insert my starters or key backups late in the game just to help us get (or prevent) a decisive score just so my team can win the game. I will not use surprise, unorthodox blitzes on non-passing downs. And I will not go all out to block your punts and field-goal attempts (except at the very end) just so I can win. This agreement is null and void in the next-to-last game of the preseason, when it's every coach for himself. And you can do whatever you want in the final preseason game except injure my players, because I really don't care much about that game.' Fortunately for handicappers, there are still plenty of games in which the motivation, scheduling situations, and talent disparities are great enough to present some interesting wagering opportunities, regardless of the 'formula' and the 'coaches' agreement.' The return of Bill Parcells (3-1 vs. the points last season with Dallas) increased that number last year. Sometimes incoming coaches want to 'send a message' by having their new teams notch some wins, even if the preseason games don't count and are soon forgotten. The NFL preseason can also be valuable to handicappers be helping them learn more about the teams and their new players. Handicappers can hone their skills, discipline, and money management prior to the start of the topsy-turvy regular season. No handicapper worth his salt ever lets his bankroll get seriously damaged in the preseason. Here are some situations to look for. PRESEASON ANGLES THE BIGGEST EDGE OF ALL. The biggest edge is, of course, when one team is going to employ vastly superior talent that day, in that game than is its preseason opponent. This situation can occur due to injuries, scheduling dynamics, or when one coach's determination for his team to emerge victorious is matched vs. another coach's semi-indifference. It rarely hurts to have the better-focused, superior players going for you in any contest, practice or not. QUARTERBACKS. At no position in a football game is competence more important than at QB. Solid, veteran QBs are capable of striking for big plays, converting third downs, and grinding out some scoring drives in the preseason, even with a limited gameplan. But a lead that a couple of solid veteran QBs can build in three quarters, an intimidated, overmatched youngster can often throw away in few minutes. QB experience and talent are great to have in a preseason game; and the allotted QB playing time for each team is important to know. Often, the coaches make their QB plans public (however, some coaches like to change those plans once the game gets going). Many times, QB rotations make it to various Internet sites. Having veteran QBs fighting for a starting job or fighting make the final roster can be an edge in the preseason when they're matched against another team's inexperienced youngsters. [See our section on NFL Roster Changes in this magazine for an early list of each team's QBs.] TEAMS THAT HAVE A GAME UNDER THEIR BELT. It has long been customary for several NFL teams each year to play five exhibitions (rather than the normal four)--usually because of the Hall of Fame Game or the NFL's promotional games in other countries. A week later, it's usually a good thing for those players to have a game under theirs belts. Teams with a game under their belt last year were 3-1 vs. the spread in their ensuing exhibition, and they're now 11-5-1 vs. the number the past three seasons when facing teams playing their first preseason game. (However, it will be noted here that such 'game-under-the-belt' teams are only 28-26-1 vs. the number over the last ten years.) 0-2 TEAMS. Coaches, by and large, are a worrisome breed and tend to get very antsy when their team starts the preseason with two straight losses, even though they know the games don't count. Teams that lost their first two exhibitions last year were 3-2 vs. the spread in their next game (when not facing similar winless opponents). Over the last seven years, 0-2 teams are 30-21 vs. the spread; over the last 19 years, a solid 59 per cent. JETS VS. GIANTS. In pre-game interviews, players on both N.Y. teams regularly contend this practice-game battle is 'just another exhibition,' not a contest for bragging rights in Gotham, the newspaper capital of the western hemisphere. But when the players get on the field, their actions speak differently. Going in to last year, the Jets had covered the previous 11 games in the series vs. their NFC cousins! The Jets failed to cover in 2003, but not by much, winning straight up 15-14 as a 2½-point favorite. But 11-1 vs. the spread ain't bad. (The Jets-Giants meeting nearly always takes place the next-to-last preseason game, i.e., the 'dress rehearsal' game, when starters and veterans usually get their most extensive playing time.) TOTALS. Many handicappers like to play the 'under' in early preseason games, figuring that the use of numerous quarterbacks, so-called 'vanilla' offenses, and semi-predictable defenses will tend to produce low-scoring games. In 2003 that line of thinking was right, but not by much, as there were 8 'overs' and 9 'unders' in the first full week of the preseason plus the previous week's Hall-of-Fame game. However, during the last 9 preseasons, 'overs' in the first one-plus weeks of the campaign lead the 'unders' 87-78. (That gap was larger until a 5-13 over-vs.-under mark in the first one-plus weeks of 2001.) I hope this perspective helps you enjoy the NFL preseason this year. We have listed many interesting individual team trends at the bottom of each of our 2004 write-ups for the 32 NFL teams. As we've said so many times before, the key is searching for contests with favorable fundamental, psychological, and/or technical characteristics. At Las Vegas sportsbooks, football is still 'king.' And the NFL is the 'king of kings.' Even in practice games. Chuck Sippl, Senior Editor of THE GOLD SHEET
GAMBLING RESTRICTIONS
The last few days of political action have been quite telling for those interested in the potential for any offshore gambling restrictions. According to insiders, the prospects for the Kyl, Leach, and Goodlatte bills have taken a major hit. LAS VEGAS - During this week's hearing regarding the Goodlatte Bill, previously quiet opposition arose. Representative Goodlatte and his cronies figured anti-gambling legislation was an easy way to cleanse the past sins of his party's connections with Jack Abramoff and to continue a push towards a more morally restrictive policy. Republicans pay lip service in hopes of gaining both independent and swing voters. However, when it comes down to it, they mostly still cater to the far right. Such a plan seemed to point to a relatively easy passage because of healthy majorities in congress. While very few in political circles have truly seen the need for banning online gambling, even fewer politicians were thought to oppose such actions. Politicians only need to bring up todays strong buzzwords of fighting terrorism and protecting families and any bill has a decent shot at passage. The proposed bills in this session have heartily taken to this approach. So, when Goodlatte's bill had a date this week with a House Judiciary sub-committee, he expected only mild commentary mostly in support of his efforts before scheduling a vote for the full committee after an upcoming two week holiday break. Instead, he ran into opposition from small banks and a fellow representative. Banks, under the provisions of the Leach and Kyl bills and to a degree under the Goodlatte bill, would be the main defense against offshore gambling operations. Imagine the many ways one can presently send money to fund an offshore account. Put yourself in the bank's shoes. Would you want to have to keep an eye on all methods, plus all the emerging ways the offshore industry could create to receive money? It is a logistical nightmare. It is impossible for banks to review and know every potential recipient of their wire transfers and checks. Nobody sends a check or wire transfer to Acme Sports Book. The receiving end is always some generic sounding investment group with no hint as to its main line of business. The standard for banks is to know their customers. It is not to know the associates of those customers. Furthermore, the bill was attacked by Representative Bobby Scott, a Democrat from Goodlatte's home state of Virginia. Scott had never been on record as opposing these bills. He brought up arguments that were backed by the smaller banking lobby, attacking the bill for creating nightmares for regulators and bankers. Scott appears to be playing politics. Further evidence of the political situation was seen in the senate this week as well. A tough compromise was reached on the immigration issue, only to fall apart less than 24 hours later. Most say it is a strategy of the Democrats to prevent any victories for Republicans going into November's elections in hopes of reclaiming control of the Senate. A rocky sub-committee meeting and a seemingly unrelated mess on the other side of Congress dont seem like much. But both point to potential failure for the anti-gambling bills this year. A Democrat from Goodlatte's state making trouble for him seems to most a very political move. Just the mere presence of opposition to the bill will make it difficult to pass with time running short. Congress current session has about 50 days remaining. In the short period of time remaining, there are going to be fights over every bit of legislation, with partisan politics being the rule of the day.
BANNING INTERNET GAMBLING
If the U.S. Congress was really serious about banning Internet gambling it would just take a hint from Italy. Italys lawmakers are under heavy fire from online gaming operators. LAS VEGAS - Italys method is simply to threaten Internet service providers (ISPs) with fines for letting customers access gambling sites. Putting questions of the effectiveness of such a policy aside, Italy has said either deal with them or they will follow a policy of dealing with you. The fines, which may or may not be enforced depending on how cooperative the ISPs are, amount to $216,000 for violations. The ban will cover any Web site authorities in the Italian government deem to be out of compliance with Italian law. This would apply for essentially all companies without a license to operate in Italy. Since Italy charges a prohibitive tax rate for online operations, it is understandable that the operators have no intentions of getting licensed. Further, Italy will likely discriminate against non-Italian operations with a preference given to local gambling powerhouses which mostly operate lotteries. Lotteries are so profitable, and accustomed to operating under high tax rates, that they wont miss a beat paying for the privilege of a near-monopoly. Since sports betting and casino games are far lower margin products, they cant afford the tax and remain competitive. What could be even more troubling is the regulatory licensing procedure. Since it is a new licensing regime, its anyones guess what onerous requirements or arbitrary denials will result. Back in the U.S., such ideas have been floated around and quickly shot down. The U.S. has an edge over Italy in that it doesnt have a European commission that requires allowing foreign operations. The WTO has essentially tried that, but it appears it wont result in any changes. If the U.S. did pass such a requirement, it might stand in court challenges and force the nation to face further howls of protest from WTO members. So why hasnt this approach been taken? The backers of these bans realize they dont have enough support to pass a bill with real teeth. With every new attempt to pass some sort of ban, the language just gets further watered down. While financial institutions could theoretically face serious issues with the latest Leach/Kyl Bill, they have been offered some large loopholes to escape true liability. The same would have to apply to ISPs. Putting aside the belief that Web site bans can easily be circumvented, this appears to make the most sense and possibly offer a solution that would serve everyone well. What would happen is that some government agency would come up with a first-cut list of Web sites to ban. The ISPs could dutifully follow the ban in a first-round purge. Then the operators could change their Web site locations and everyone could go back to doing what they were before. U.S. officials and lawmakers would be able to say with a straight-face that they banned online gambling. However, in reality, they would be doing little to stop it. Politicians still try making political hay by supporting moot legislation. It seems utterly stupid that we operate this way, but such is politics in our times. Politicians and law enforcement hate the idea of online gamblers being above the law. However, they hate the idea of enforcing a law against otherwise law-abiding citizens even more. This one simple move would serve the needs of most, insuring a stand is taken against online gambling while effectively doing little to stop the activity. Meanwhile, operators and players get some quasi-cover in that the government will lose interest in an issue for awhile thinking they had stopped it. It saves face for everyone and therefore might be the best solution available to remove this never-ending cloud over the industry and its customers.
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